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Cybercab Revolution: Are Driver’s Licenses and Subways on the Brink of Obsolescence?
By Khadija Khan | FNF News | May 29, 2025
In what experts describe as a transportation revolution, industry leaders and analysts predict that millions of autonomous “Cybercabs” will be operational worldwide within five years, signaling a seismic shift in how people move across cities. Within the next two decades, some forecast that human-driven vehicles will be so rare that driver’s licenses might become obsolete, while traditional subways may struggle to remain relevant.
Cybercabs: The Future Is Already Here
The term “Cybercab” gained prominence after Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased a fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle — internally dubbed the Tesla Robotaxi or Cybercab — expected to debut in limited U.S. cities by mid-2025. Reports from Business Insider and The Verge confirm Tesla plans to roll out 10–50 autonomous vehicles in Austin, Texas, before scaling to over 1,000 within a year.
“Tesla aims to have over a million robotaxis on American roads by the end of 2026,” reported Business Insider in April 2025.
— Business Insider, 2025
But it’s not just Tesla. Companies like Waymo, Cruise, and Baidu are expanding driverless services across China, the U.S., and the UAE, with WeRide launching robotaxi services in Abu Dhabi and Guangzhou.
A recent study by PatentPC estimates over 30 million autonomous vehicles will be on global roads by 2030, and at least 4.5 million in the United States alone — many of them operating without a human driver onboard.
The End of the Driver’s License?
If Cybercabs dominate roadways, what happens to driver’s licenses?
Transportation experts are already asking whether people will still need a license in a world dominated by driverless technology.
“In a fully autonomous environment, owning a license might be as outdated as needing a horse-riding permit,” says Dr. Azim Eskandarian, director of intelligent vehicle systems at Virginia Tech.
A growing number of analysts believe that children born today may never need to apply for a traditional driver’s license, just as modern teens rarely learn how to drive a stick shift.
A blog by Driver Knowledge Tests, an Australian transport education platform, speculates that by 2045, human intervention in driving will be rare, especially in cities that adopt autonomous fleets as a public service model.
“Driverless cars will reduce the need for personal licenses. Eventually, you’ll summon transport — not drive it.”
— DriverKnowledgeTests.com
Are Subways Headed for Extinction?
As ride-hailing becomes autonomous, fixed public transit infrastructure — especially subways — faces an uncertain future.
In a 2023 transportation journal article, researchers from the University of Washington predicted that autonomous micro-mobility services will reduce subway ridership in most major cities by at least 40% by 2040. The logic? Subways lack the flexibility and door-to-door convenience that driverless fleets will offer.
“Subways are efficient but rigid. AVs are slower but adaptable. In a post-license world, flexibility wins,” says Prof. Lisa Carver, an urban mobility researcher.
Still, not everyone is convinced subways will disappear entirely. Experts at Greater Greater Washington, a nonprofit transit watchdog, argue that mass transit remains vital for dense megacities, especially during peak hours and for low-income communities.
Global Acceleration: A Coordinated Push
The global push toward autonomy is not happening in isolation:
- Dubai aims to make 25% of its transportation fully autonomous by 2030.
- China’s Baidu and WeRide are already testing driverless buses and taxis across several provinces.
- The European Union has begun policy frameworks for “urban mobility without drivers” by 2035.
Governments are also considering new regulatory structures, including AI driving certifications, vehicle-only insurance policies, and data-sharing requirements to monitor autonomous fleet behavior.
Conclusion: A New Era on the Horizon
While it may sound like science fiction, the reality is quickly catching up. In the next five years, Cybercabs may become a common sight on city streets. In twenty, the very concept of “driving” may become as archaic as dialing an operator to place a call.
What’s certain is that the future of transportation will not revolve around drivers — but rather the systems that carry us.
Sources
- Business Insider (2025) – Tesla Robotaxi launch
- PatentPC – Global AV adoption rates
- DriverKnowledgeTests.com – Driver’s license future
- Open Transportation Journal (2023) – Impact on subway systems
- Wired Magazine – IEEE forecast on AVs
- Greater Greater Washington – Transit policy analysis
- Tesla, WeRide, and Baidu press briefings (2024–2025)