FnF News
FNF News | Middle East Conflict & Strategy
Published: June 21, 2025
By: Khadija Khan, Foreign Affairs Analyst
Toppling by Decapitation: Is Israel Applying Its Hezbollah Strategy to Iran’s Power Structure?
Tel Aviv, Israel — As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate to levels unseen in decades, military analysts suggest that Israel may be dusting off a familiar playbook — one honed in Lebanon against Hezbollah — by focusing on systematic targeting of Iran’s leadership and command infrastructure, rather than engaging in all-out war.
“There’s a pattern here,” said Gen. Amos Yadlin (Ret.), former head of Israeli military intelligence. “What worked to destabilize Hezbollah’s upper ranks is being adapted to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated proxies.”
For over two decades, Israel has carried out covert operations, drone strikes, and cyberwarfare to cripple Hezbollah’s leadership ecosystem in Lebanon. Now, it seems the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are pursuing a similar strategy in Iran, Syria, and Iraq, with growing success — and risk.
A Strategy of Targeted Erosion
Since January 2025, Israeli operations have reportedly taken out:
- Four senior IRGC officers, including a high-ranking commander of Quds Force operations in Syria.
- Key nuclear scientists tied to Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.
- Commanders in Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Fatemiyoun Brigade (Afghan Shia militias controlled by Iran).
Sources within Israeli defense circles describe these strikes as part of a broader “decapitation doctrine” — aimed not at launching a ground invasion, but at weakening Iran’s ability to project regional influence through proxies and asymmetric warfare.
“Israel does not need to conquer Tehran,” said Dalia Kaye, a RAND Corporation policy expert. “They need to make Iran’s elite feel unsafe — to constantly disrupt their strategic calculus.”
The Hezbollah Precedent
Between 2006 and 2021, Israel conducted an aggressive series of targeted killings, surveillance operations, and infrastructure sabotage missions to stifle Hezbollah’s growth. While the group still exists, its ability to operate openly in Lebanon has diminished, and several top commanders have been permanently removed.
- In 2015, Hezbollah operative Samir Kuntar was killed in a Damascus airstrike.
- In 2019, Israel foiled a Hezbollah cross-border tunnel network before a planned offensive.
Much of that campaign involved precise, intelligence-driven strikes designed to isolate leadership from logistics — a tactic now being observed in Syria, Iran, and even Yemen.
Tehran’s Response: Contained Retaliation, So Far
Despite the high-value losses, Iran’s response has remained largely contained to indirect proxy skirmishes — a sign some analysts interpret as evidence that Israel’s strategy is working.
“Iran cannot afford a direct war with Israel while its economy is in ruins and its internal unrest simmers,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Iranian state media has vowed “revenge,” but has largely limited action to drone launches from Iraq and Syria, cyberattacks, and diplomatic condemnation. A more robust counterstrike may still be on the table, but the lack of immediate escalation may reflect internal fractures within Iran’s own military chain of command — precisely what Israel aims to exploit.
Risks of the Decapitation Doctrine
Despite its apparent strategic merit, the doctrine is not without risk.
- Iran may delegate retaliation to Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthis in Yemen, triggering broader regional instability.
- Russia and China, both aligned with Iran, may see repeated strikes as a U.S.-backed overreach, escalating diplomatic tensions.
- Civilian casualties from mistaken targeting could provoke international backlash, especially in light of Israel’s already delicate global standing after recent operations in Gaza.
“This is a knife-edge strategy,” warns Dr. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “One wrong strike and it could spiral into a regional war.”
U.S. Involvement: Quiet Support, Public Distance
Although President Trump has reaffirmed U.S. commitment to Israel’s right to self-defense, the White House has been careful not to take public credit or blame for Israeli operations.
National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien stated this week:
“The U.S. supports de-escalation and regional stability. While we coordinate with our allies, operational decisions are Israel’s to make.”
However, leaked reports from the Pentagon suggest that U.S. satellite intelligence and cyber infrastructure have aided recent Israeli strikes — continuing the deep but informal military partnership between the two nations.
Could It Work?
The central question remains: Can Iran’s regime be toppled — or significantly weakened — through selective targeting alone?
History is mixed. While decapitation strikes have succeeded in weakening terrorist groups and regional militias, they have rarely toppled sovereign governments. Yet Iran’s unique structure — a fragile theocracy deeply reliant on elite networks like the IRGC — may be more vulnerable than traditional regimes.
“Iran is not Iraq. There’s no Saddam Hussein-style singular dictator. But it is dependent on a small ring of ideological gatekeepers,” said Dr. Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute. “Cutting off that ring could break the whole wheel.”