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Bookies Favor Jordan Leavitt in ‘Finish-Only’ Market Ahead of UFC Vegas 107 Showdown
By Khadija Khan | FNF News | May 29, 2025
LAS VEGAS, NV — As the hype builds for UFC Vegas 107, bettors and analysts are zeroing in on a dark horse: Jordan Leavitt. Known for his unorthodox grappling and creative finishes, Leavitt has emerged as a surprising favorite in the “finish-only” betting market, fueling chatter across MMA Twitter just days before fight night.
“Closest thing we have that represents a fight to the death is the finish-only market,” tweeted MMA commentator James Lynch on Wednesday. “And bookies are favoring Leavitt there? Wild. #UFCVegas107”
What Is the “Finish-Only” Market?
In recent years, sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Bet365 have introduced “method-only” or “finish-only” markets — betting lines that eliminate judges’ scorecards from the equation. In these markets, only knockouts, technical knockouts, or submissions count.
“It’s become one of the most honest ways to bet MMA,” says John Morgan, senior editor at MMA Junkie. “You’re essentially betting on who brings real fight-ending danger.”
In this context, Leavitt’s track record becomes relevant. Nicknamed “The Monkey King,” Leavitt holds a professional record of 11-2, with 7 wins by submission. He’s coming off a first-round rear-naked choke victory at UFC Fight Night 232, and his finishing instincts have made him a popular pick among bettors seeking risk with reward.
Odds Movement and Market Behavior
As of Thursday morning, FanDuel Sportsbook lists Jordan Leavitt at -125 in the finish-only market, meaning bettors would need to wager $125 to win $100 — a sign that Leavitt is edging into favorite territory.
His opponent, Clayton Carpenter, a rising contender out of Arizona with a 7-0 record, is even money at +100, reflecting a closer margin in standard moneyline odds but slightly less confidence in his finishing potential.
“Carpenter’s undefeated, but Leavitt has the better finishing resume,” said Nick Kalikas, founder of MMAOddsBreaker. “In the finish-only market, that matters more than ever.”
Analyst Opinions Mixed
Despite the betting line shift, opinions remain divided among analysts and former fighters.
“Leavitt’s creativity is fun, but Carpenter is more complete,” said Michael Bisping on his YouTube channel. “Still, this finish-only line is interesting — it suggests Leavitt’s dangerous in ways that scorecards don’t capture.”
“It’s a 50/50 stylistic fight, but Leavitt thrives in chaos,” added Megan Anderson, former UFC featherweight and ESPN analyst. “If he gets funky early, Carpenter might be in trouble.”
Fans Stir the Pot
On social media, the odds movement has become a flashpoint for discussion — and memes.
“Jordan Leavitt favored in a finish-only market is proof Vegas has lost its mind,” joked one Reddit user on r/MMA. “What next, CM Punk in a submission prop?”
But others rallied to Leavitt’s corner, pointing to his iconic slam KO over Matt Wiman in 2020 and his odd but effective jiu-jitsu.
“Leavitt fights like he’s in Tekken,” one fan tweeted. “Respect the unorthodoxy.”
UFC Vegas 107: What’s at Stake?
The UFC Vegas 107 card, headlined by a middleweight clash between Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis, is packed with rising talent and high-stakes matchups. While Leavitt vs. Carpenter may not headline the event, it’s drawing significant betting attention due to its volatile nature.
“This fight is catnip for finish bettors,” said Brett Okamoto, ESPN MMA analyst. “No one trusts the judges anymore, and this bout may not need them anyway.”
Conclusion
With the finish-only market casting a spotlight on Jordan Leavitt’s submission-heavy style, UFC Vegas 107 offers a glimpse into how betting trends now reflect fighter dynamics more than just records. Whether Leavitt delivers another viral moment or Carpenter keeps his undefeated streak intact, one thing is clear: this is not a fight that’s likely to go the distance — and Vegas knows it.
Sources:
- FanDuel Sportsbook odds, May 29, 2025
- MMA Junkie: Fighter stats and matchup previews
- UFC Stats database
- ESPN MMA commentary via YouTube and X
- MMAOddsBreaker, Nick Kalikas podcast, May 28, 2025
- James Lynch (@LynchOnSports) on X, May 28, 2025
Tags: UFC Vegas 107, Jordan Leavitt, MMA Betting, Finish-Only Market, UFC News