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Karol Nawrocki Projected to Win Polish Presidency Amid Clash with Left-Wing and EU Establishment
By Khadija Khan | FNF News | June 1, 2025
In what appears to be a stunning upset for Poland’s pro-EU establishment, nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki is now predicted to win the Polish presidential election, despite a coordinated push by left-wing and globalist forces across Europe. Early exit polls and voter turnout analysis suggest Nawrocki could secure a narrow but consequential victory over centrist-liberal opponent Rafał Trzaskowski, who has been endorsed by key European Union figures.
A Historian Turned Politician
Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former director of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, entered the race as a political outsider with a message centered on national sovereignty, historical truth, and traditional values. Often described by critics as a “hardline nationalist,” Nawrocki’s campaign focused on opposing mass immigration, preserving Polish identity, and resisting what he labeled “European ideological colonization.”
His rise has sent shockwaves through Brussels, where EU officials have been quietly backing candidates aligned with progressive values, open-border policies, and further European integration.
“Poland will never bow to bureaucrats in Brussels,” Nawrocki declared at his final rally in Gdańsk, drawing massive crowds in a show of grassroots strength rarely seen in Polish politics since the 1980s Solidarity movement.
Trzaskowski Backed by EU Elites, NGOs, and Foreign Media
Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and a key figure in Poland’s Civic Coalition, ran a campaign heavy on promises to restore EU relations, liberalize social policies, and protect what he called “European democratic values.” His platform was widely praised in Western media and received behind-the-scenes support from several NGOs operating in Poland with funding from German and Dutch foundations.
But this international alignment may have worked against him in conservative Polish regions.
“Many Poles are tired of being told by foreigners how to live,” said political analyst Janusz Markowski. “There is a growing perception that the EU, foreign-funded media, and NGOs are interfering too deeply in national matters.”
Voter Turnout and Polarization
Turnout for the runoff election reached over 70%, one of the highest in recent Polish history, reflecting deep polarization and voter mobilization on both sides. Nawrocki performed well in rural areas and Poland’s southeast, while Trzaskowski led in major urban centers and among younger, university-educated voters.
However, Nawrocki’s success among working-class voters and religious conservatives proved decisive.
Ties to Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán
Nawrocki’s campaign drew praise from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who described him as “a strong Polish patriot” in a Truth Social post last week. Nawrocki has also built close ties with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, sharing a mutual skepticism of the European Union’s influence and a commitment to “illiberal democracy.”
“The globalist left threw everything they had at this election—money, media, pressure—and they still lost,” said Witold Waszczykowski, former Polish Foreign Minister and Nawrocki ally. “It’s a victory for real Poles.”
What Nawrocki’s Victory Means for Poland and the EU
If officially confirmed, Nawrocki’s victory will shift Poland’s balance of power. While Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the Civic Coalition still control parliament, Nawrocki as president will wield veto power and influence over judicial appointments, foreign policy, and military decisions.
EU leaders are reportedly “deeply concerned” about Nawrocki’s likely win. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declined to comment on the preliminary results but emphasized “respect for democratic norms and the European legal order.”
Meanwhile, France’s President Emmanuel Macron called for a “constructive relationship with whoever is elected” while warning against “nationalist isolationism.”
Looking Ahead
With final results expected within 48 hours, all eyes are on the Polish Electoral Commission. Pro-Nawrocki protests have already erupted outside the EU’s Warsaw offices, and Civic Coalition supporters are warning of legal challenges.
Regardless of the outcome, this election has confirmed one thing: Poland remains a frontline state in Europe’s broader ideological struggle between nationalist populism and liberal globalism.